There is also evidence of a cautious return by shoppers – retail parks recovered faster than high streets, likely due to the ease of adapting to social distancing and omnichannel retail, with vacancy rates dropping from a high of 11.5 per cent to 9 per cent by the end of 2022.Īnd Centre for Cities’ latest research shows that, while online spend jumped during the pandemic, it has fallen since and is no higher now than the longer-term growth in online spending would have predicted in the absence of covid. In some locations, notably in the North West, vacancy rates have now fallen below pre-pandemic levels (although cities here went into the pandemic with high vacancy rates). Similarly, shop vacancy rates have stabilised, and footfall has largely returned to pre-covid levels. In the rental market, however, the rising cost of living has prompted a shift towards demand for affordability and energy-efficiency, and the share of people looking to move longer distances remains higher than pre-pandemic. The proportion of people looking to make longer-distance moves has returned to the pre-covid baseline of around 14-15 per cent for sales. Job postings allowing remote and/or hybrid working have remained relatively stable at just under 10 per cent, and the number of postings referencing these ways of working in any context also stabilised at around 10 per cent. Remote working trends had plateaued by the end of 2022. After lockdown, the benefits that cities offer as places for production and consumption – what we call ‘agglomeration benefits’ – largely remain. There has been a bounce back towards pre-pandemic trendsĪs restrictions eased, these trends have stabilised and then have returned towards pre-covid baselines, rather than a ‘new normal’ that was predicted by many in the early stages of covid. There has been better news for independents though, which saw an increase of 2,000 units in 2021. Chain retailers bore the brunt of this, experiencing a net decline of 10,000 units since 2020. Vacancy rates increased everywhere according to the Local Data Company’s data, reaching a record high of 14.5 per cent in the first half of 2021. Restrictions had a significant impact on retail and accelerated the existing shift towards online shopping, particularly for ‘non-essential’ retail. For both sales and rentals, people broadened their search areas from about 60km 2 to 110km 2, and there was an uptick in the proportion of people sending enquiries about properties more than 50km away from their current location – from 14 per cent in January 2020 to a peak of 18per cent in July/August 2021 for sales, and from 10 per cent to 15 per cent for rentals. The share of people looking to leave cities increased year on year from 2020 – 2022. For rentals, features such as gardens and ‘pet-friendly’ became more in-demand. Data on keyword searches such as ‘acre’ and ‘annexe’ for house sales shows that people were searching for more spacious properties throughout late 2021 and Spring 2022. Demand for properties – the numbers of people sending enquiries to agents via Rightmove – began to increase even before restrictions eased in Summer 2020. These changes prompted demand for more spacious housing. Cities with a high share of skilled and professional occupations therefore experienced a greater shift towards remote and hybrid working. The extent of this trend varied by employment type as just 4 per cent of jobs in low- and medium-skilled occupations offer remote working, compared to 12 per cent for high-skilled jobs. The share of job postings mentioning remote, hybrid or no remote working in any context, increased rapidly from 2 per cent pre-pandemic to 12 per cent. Lightcast data shows that the share of job postings specifying that remote or hybrid working is allowed increased from just 1.5 per cent pre-pandemic to just below 10 per cent during lockdown. Remote working did increase due to lockdown, but from a low base. Lockdown prompted shifts in how we live, work and shop, and accelerated existing trends Here are the headlines from their discussion. Last week, Centre for Cities hosted speakers from the Local Data Company, Rightmove and Lightcast to explore what the data tells us about these changes over the last three years, and how cities have responded. The 23 rd March 2023 marked the third anniversary of the UK’s first lockdown, and rapid changes in how we live, work and shop in cities.
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